My thoughts on the war in Ukraine
I'm no military expert, but I do understand some universal principles that never lie. These principles apply to all of us - whether you're rich or poor, powerful or not, there's no way around them.
- Inflexible systems will break. It's simply a matter of time. So will the collapse of the Russian Empire be inevitable. It will collapse just like the Soviet Union collapsed. And it will keep collapsing over and over again until the root of the problem is fixed.
The more inflexible you are, the more probable the breaking. Everyone knows that Bruce Lee quote: "Be like water...".
- Superior firepower doesn't mean much. Just like the US had superior firepower in the Vietnam war, but in the end, had to pack their bags and admit the loss. Yet people keep insisting on counting numbers - who has more of this or that. It's silly - the workings of the Universe are way more complex. There are too many variables at play.
One of the most important ones is the "will".
The will or what Napoleon Hill called - "the burning desire" is what nobody pays attention to it. Yet this is one of the most important factors - if not the most important factor. Now, Putin has the will, but does also his army? Not so much. Yet, on the Ukrainian side, not only has the leadership the will, but also the people.
Another great example of this is the Finnish Winter War. Look that up. Many similarities in these wars.
- Putin can't stop because stopping would be admitting a loss. And losing would demolish his entire identity. See, many people would rather die than have anything interfere with their reality - reality constructed by their ego.
Ever seen little kids playing a game and when one loses, she gets very angry and throws the board on the floor? It's the same thing. In the kid's mind, she can't accept what is. It's not about losing the game, it's that this reality does not fit with the reality her ego had constructed in her mind. This incompatibility is what throws off the ego.
- Never surround yourself with people who always agree with you. Never isolate yourself from the world.
This is a big problem for people in leading positions. They isolate themselves off to some high tower - or office - and because of that, they have no idea what is going on. Even worse, they surround themselves with the so-called "yes-men" who only agree with their superiors as doing otherwise would endanger their own position. They don't want to upset the boss. And the boss doesn't want to be upset.
The result of this is that the leaders will get distorted information and that info will keep being distorted as it moves upwards the hierarchy. I could only imagine how far from reality the information about the battlefield is for Putin's generals - and for himself as well of course.
If you're a leader, you want to be where the action is. Just like great investors will go and physically visit the companies they're about to buy, you also want to see what's going on with your own eyes.
And secondly, always surround yourself with people who don't agree with you - this way you get better feedback and a clearer signal of the reality and therefore, are in a much better position to make better decisions.
Machiavelli talks about this in his famous "The Prince".
Based on the above, my conclusion is that Putin is finished, Russia in that form is finished. There's not going to be any Soviet Union 2.0 for a while. The only question is - when?
Take care and enjoy the sunny weather - enjoy life as much as possible! K.